Lillestrom vs Viking Match Preview

Lillestrom hosts Viking on matchday 13 of the Norwegian league.

The home side struggled but eased the resistance of the last-placed Kristiansund in the dying minutes of their previous game despite their mediocre performance. This victory was their fourth in the last six games, having also one draw and one loss. Undoubtedly, their six wins in the six matches played in front of their fans keep them in first place in the standings, a fact achieved with only one goal conceded and thirteen scored.

On the contrary, the guests are in a bad spel both in terms of results and appearances. In the last six matches, they had three draws and three defeats while conceding an average of two goals. They are third-placed, however, they have played fourteen matches while many other teams have played just twelve, and their away performances are considered average. Away from home, they have two wins, one draw and three losses in six games so I don't expect them to gain any points playing at the home of the top-placed Lillestrom.

Taking all the above into account, I believe that the probability of Lillestrom winning is higher than not winning in today's match, so the home win odds should be below 2.00. Instead, the home win is priced at 2.12 and I will stake 5 units.