Betting in International Friendly games
posted on 29-05-2018 by Jorobado
Brazil never play 'friendly games'. Italy in 44 international friendly games won just 12. How to profit from the 'bonus' in favorites' odds. Teams tend to play in a more relaxed and open way that favors over 2.5 goals.
My personal experience from friendly games isn't that bad though, and I believe that the dislike most punters show to them is at least exaggerated, especially when they consider them to be unreliable or even as a betting minefield. It just needs more homework, combined with quick reflections in odds' changes. If someone is concentrated enough, he can reverse all the drawbacks into advantages in his favor and make a real profit when betting on such friendly games.
Myths vs Reality
There is often a distance between reality and the perception of staying away from friendly games. A typical example could be the most recent period of international friendly games, in March 2018, where surprises and unexpected results were only a few. More than 70 international friendly games took place between 22-28 of March. Only two of the results weren't easy to predict, Colombia's win against France 3-2 in 'Stade de France' in front of 80.000 spectators, as well as Nigeria's win against Poland 1-0 in Wroclaw. From that point on, the Dutch's 3-0 against European Champions Portugal made more sense as a comfortable score, than as a result. Finally, I should mention Gibraltar's win over Latvia @17.00, it is not a common fact for the team of this small state to win football games .
The conclusion is that more than the 90% of the games had expected outcome. And the question is: If we take as an example 70 official games among national teams (a little more than the fothcoming World Cup in Russia) can we expect a different surprise rate? It is more likely that the percentage of surprising results will be the same, if not higher. I can guarantee this.
The 'friendly effect' that adds a 'bonus' to offered odds
In addition, when you bet on a favorite in a friendly game, most of the times it is more likely to get better odds, as the bookmakers (you may see here our selection of bookmakers with their bonuses) tend to increase the odds, due to the fact that top teams face in a more relaxed way these games. I call this as the 'friendly effect'. For example, a national team who would normally be offered @1.50, may reach 1.60-1.65 against the same opponent, due to the 'friendly effect'. Over 2.5 goal may be another interesting option, since friendly games usually have more goals because teams play in a more open and experimental manner.
Some teams perform better in friendly games than others
A typical example is Brazil who never play 'friendly' games. They are expected to win wherever and whenever they play. The famous yellow shirt is respectful to Brazilian who wears it, even he plays in Serie B of the domestic league. It worths to mention the impressive 27-1-1 from the Brazilian National team in friendly games from the summer of 2013 until today.
On the other hand, I would recommend to stay away from Italy's friendly games. Italy may be one of the biggest football teams in international level, but their realism is always above their undeniable quality. An Italian team will never do their best, in a game they know it has nothing to play for.
Italy played 44 international friendly games since 2010 and won just 12 of them! Even more impressive is that the didn't win teams like Haiti or Luxembourg!
As a conclusion, I recommend not to be afraid betting in international friendly games. Do your homework and look for possible depleted squads. Find the value in odds and take advantage of the ''bonus'' in odds offered by bookmakers. The light manner that teams face such matches favors over 2.5 goals. And of course, keep your stake relatively low. Finally...stay away from those Italians!