How often teams score in stoppage time?
posted on 15-06-2017 by Gurusoccer
By knowing how often teams score in stoppage time – and how much stoppage time they’re given – players can optimise their chances of winning in the dying minutes of games.
Calculating stoppage time
Stoppage time is, at its most basic, a chance for bettors’ predictions to come off – a large period of additional time presents a greater opportunity for the game to change. Therefore serious bettors can gain an advantage if they could calculate how much stoppage time is added during the second half, before the referee informs the fourth official.
It is commonly believed that referees add 30 seconds for each goal, substitutions, and a certain amount for other stoppages such as injuries, and bookings. However, there is no specific guideline set by Fifa, with referees asked to use their own discretion when deciding on how much stoppage time will be added at the end of the game.
This gives bettors an opportunity to profile referees, and then use their expert knowledge to determine how much time will be added, and by extension, what the likelihood of another goal is.
Reading prolific in stoppage time
All-Time Teams' Premier League Goals Scored in Stoppage Time (%)
The table highlighting the percentage of team’s goals scored past 90 minutes in the Premier League shows, somewhat surprisingly, that Reading have scored more of their goals in stoppage time than any other team in the Premier League.
An incredible 13.1% of all Reading’s goals have come in stoppage time, while the second highest is Stoke who have scored 16 goals (9.8%) past the 90th minute.
In comparison QPR have scored just 2.9% of all their Premier League goals in stoppage time, while Aston Villa – who are one of the seven teams to play in every Premier League Season – have scored just 31 stoppage time goals (3.2%) in 20 seasons.
Champions League regulars score late goals
How Often Teams Score in Stoppage Time (average no. of games)
Interestingly, Reading remain top of the list when comparing how often a team scores a stoppage time goal.
On average, Reading score a stoppage time goal every 6.4 games they play – 2.40 games more often than second-place Arsenal.
This season’s statistics back up Readings prolific late scoring, as the Royals have scored three stoppage time goals in 13 games this season, which equates to a stoppage time goal every 4.34 games.
Intriguingly, the teams who consistently qualify for the Champions League – Arsenal, Chelsea & Manchester United – are next on the list.
Arsenal and Chelsea average a 90th minute (or later) goal every 8.80 Premier League games, while United score one every 9.60 games.
The data shows that the big three teams score a stoppage time goal every ten games (on average), while teams such as Aston Villa (24.00) and Swansea City (25.50) will score a stoppage time goal just once a season on average.
United do receive more stoppage time when not winning
Another statistic to consider when betting on live Premier League soccer is whether or not the bigger teams receive more stoppage time when winning or losing.
A recent study by Duncan Alexander of Opta Sports looked into this phenomenon by working out the average amount of added time for the second half of every match.
Interestingly, last season Manchester United had the lowest second-half average added time.
The crucial figure from the data however, is how much added time United get when they have been drawing or losing after 90 minutes.
Over the past three and current season, data was collected for Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool.
The results showed that when United were losing they received an average of four minutes and 37 seconds added time, compared with three minutes and 18 seconds when they were winning – a difference of 1 minute and 19 seconds.
With Chelsea as an exception, all the other teams had longer games on average when they were losing.
The statistics indicate that there is a bias towards big teams. This could be down to a number of reasons – referees could subconsciously add extra time on because of the pressure coming from a big team losing, while winning teams may employ time wasting tactics (for which the Ref compensates with more added time) in a bid to secure a notable victory.
Unfortunately, the data does not conclusively prove this, but the importance of profiling both teams and referees when betting on live Premier League soccer is clear.
Premier League 2017-18 preview
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